21.10.2005
"The Great Game" is a term often used to refer to how world politics affect Central Asia and India. Most historians see a distinct continuity in this starting from 1813 with a near-century of British-Russian imperial animosities. The game continues through the conflicts which arose regarding the spread of Communism after 1917 and through the Cold War, when the US usurped Britain as the world’s other superpower and Great Game's other major player. Many studies continue to use the term to describe and better understand the current relations between Russia, China, and the US as these countries compete for influence in the resource-rich but politically volatile region. This brief reader is designed to introduce the student to the history of the Great Game and its importance to modern international politics.  Note: the definition of Central Asia has changed over time, as indicated by the map opposite. After the fall of the USSR, the Ukraine was added to standard maps of the region. Recently, UNESCO has given the term a much broader definition. Scholars should be mindful of what definition texts are utilizing. All texts listed below consider Central Asia to be defined by the second definition.
Reading #1 (link to text)
Wikipedia’s entry on the Great Game provides a brief but fascinating history of the subject. Reading #2 (link to text)
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the weakness of Russia and abating of geopolitical tensions lead China to seek a place in the rapidly advancing capitalist development of Central Asia. The following text by Thomas Woodward, published in the Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor on 02-11-05, provides insights on the entry of China to what will likely be known as the next phase of the Great Game. Reading #3 (link to text)
In a recent tour of the Central Asian capitals, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice deliberately bypassed Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. Washington stated the reasoning for this was to send a message to the Uzbek president, deemed to be violator of Uzbek rights. However, this article by Igor Torbakov, which was originally published by RFE/RL Newsline on 10-05-05, gives evidence that move was directly prompted by US-Russian tensions over Central Asia. Students should be aware that this piece is written with a political slant and is meant to be read in conjunction with Reading #4. Reading #4 (link to text)
Giving a more objective account to Rice’s recent travels in the area, the following text, originally published by AFP on 10-13-05, details what the US’s official ambitions in the area consist of: to actively push for democratization and economic development in Central Asia.  Reading #5 (link to text)
An added twist to the Great Game is the fledgling Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Chinese-led effort to encourage cooperation between the countries of Central Asia, China, and Russia. According to this report by Fred Weir of the Christian Science Monitor, first published October 26, 2005, this organization will likely pose a threat to US military and economic interests in the area.
Further Reading
For those students interested in exploring the issue further, Peter Hopkirk has written a fascinating series of books on the issue. Several are featured below. Click on the image to read more about them from Barnes and Noble.   
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Texts Listed Below: Reading #2
Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor
February 11, 2003
THE NEW GREAT GAME
By Thomas Woodward (back to top) The former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan sit astride some of the world's most valuable oil and gas reserves or the routes to those reserves. Access to Central Asian energy resources, which are just now beginning to be exploited to their full potential, will be critical to fill the world's ever-voracious appetite for oil. This is especially true for China, which has the most rapidly growing economy, and thus the greatest need for future oil imports, in the world. The gathering political, economic and military competition amongst China, Russia and the United States to control Central Asia's energy resources is in effect a new Great Game, the victor of which will emerge as the major power of the 21st century. A net exporter of oil before 1995, China is today one of the world's largest importers and the third-largest consumer after the United States and Japan. Largely dependent on Persian Gulf oil to fulfill its accelerating need for energy resources, Beijing increasingly sees access to Central Asian reserves through pipelines stretching across its vast western desert as crucial for national energy security. In November 2002, China released its oil strategy for the 21st century, which includes the preparation of strategic oil reserves in northwestern China. What was left unsaid was growing Chinese unease at U.S. influence in Central Asian areas that China itself has had long historical ties to and claims over. At various times in history, China has assimilated much of Central Asia into its empire. China controlled the Silk Road for hundreds of years beginning with the Han dynasty and again during the Tang. It continues to control Turkistan (Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region) and Tibet to this day. Chinese sovereignty over the entire South China Sea--another potentially oil-rich area--is also based on historical claims tied to ancient trade routes used by Chinese merchants. Does China cast a covetous eye on the oil riches of Central Asia? In 1996, Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbaev embarked on his first state visit to Beijing to discuss mutual relations. No one is quite sure what his Chinese hosts said, but immediately on his return to Almaty, Nazarbaev ordered the construction of a new national capital 1,000 miles to the northwest at Astana, well away from the Chinese border. Since that time, Beijing has used the soft-spoken approach, creating the Shanghai Cooperation Organization together with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to foster mutual relations. Ostensibly a forum for resolving border and migration issues, Beijing sees the "Shanghai Six" as a vehicle to assert Chinese influence in this oil-rich region and Russia, much to its chagrin, increasingly finds itself being consigned to second fiddle. Chinese interest in Central Asia has increased markedly in recent years: -- In 1997, Beijing won the bidding for the Uzen oilfield against competition from U.S. companies, including Amoco, Texaco and Unocal. The Uzen oilfield is Kazakhstan's second-largest oil reserve after the huge Tengiz fields managed by a U.S.-Russian-European consortium. China also won the competition to develop Kazakhstan's Aktyubinsk oilfield and has acquired an interest in the Kursangi and Karabagli oil fields in Azerbaijan. -- Beijing has reached an agreement with Kazakhstan to build a pipeline that will extend 3,000 kilometers from the Chinese-controlled Kazakh oilfields to northwestern China. In addition to supplying Chinese needs, Beijing hopes that this pipeline will also be used to supply Korea and Japan, bypassing the sea routes controlled by the U.S. and Indian navies. Kazakhstan is currently transferring 95,000 barrels a day to the Chinese border by rail through a state-of-the-art Chinese-built rail transfer facility. -- China has joined a consortium to build a pipeline from the Caspian to Iranian oil refineries to carry out oil swaps in which Kazakh oil is shipped to northern Iran while equal amounts of Iranian crude are shipped from Iran's ports on the Persian Gulf to China. Some analysts believe China's involvement in the swaps and pipelines suggests that Beijing may be attempting to exert control over Kazakhstan's exports both to the east and to the south. China has also attempted to gain some measure of control over Russian oil and gas reserves in Siberia. The two sides, however, remain in disagreement on gas and oil development and on plans for a 2,400-kilometer pipeline from Siberia to China's main oil/pipeline centre at Daqing. China wanted outright control over oil and gas, but offered to pay Russia only as much as Moscow sells gas for domestically. Beijing also wanted the right to bring in tens of thousands of Chinese workers to build the pipeline. Moscow, understandably upset at Chinese attempts to cheap-Charlie the contract, was probably more concerned at the prospect of a Chinese re-colonization of parts of Siberia that once belonged to the Chinese emperor. Russia still exerts a great deal of influence over its former republics in Central Asia. Many of the military and technical elite are Russians and the transportation and power grids are oriented towards Moscow. However, Russian control of Central Asia--its fruits from the original Great Game--was a relatively recent and short-lived phenomenon. The Central Asian states appear destined to reassume their historical pattern of near-anarchy interspersed with brief periods of strongman rule. This style of strongman rule is the unstable foundation of the oil-rich Central Asian states. Saparmurat Niazov, the leader of Turkmenistan, has assumed a mantle of megalomania that rivals that of Stalin and the family Kim. He has renamed the months of the year (January for himself, April for his mother) and the days of the week (all except, thank God, for Friday). Westerners may look upon this pretension to God-like satrapy with a certain Kiplingesque quaintness. For the people of Turkmenistan, however, it is no laughing matter. As Niazov holds the power of life and death over each of his subjects, for all practical purposes he is their god. This, then, is the region where the New Great Game is about to play out. Central Asia is awash in treachery, intrigue and chameleon loyalties not seen, well, since the first Great Game in the mid-1800s, when Britain, Russia and the Ottoman Empire battled it out for influence and control over the trade routes to India. Today, tyrannical oil kingdoms possess enough power to control their subject populations but nonetheless will find themselves unable to protect their precious fluids against larger, hungrier and more powerful neighbors. Thus, stability for the former 'Stans will be dependent upon playing the larger powers--Russia, the United States, China, Iran, Turkey and India--against each other, or in finding a patron state with the power to protect them without conquering them. In this respect, the United States has a distinct advantage over the other contenders. Distance plays a part of course. We don't want their land, just their oil. We also don't care if the respective leaders rename all the months of the year, or fowl of the earth and fish of the sea, after their extended families, or even declare themselves to be gods. After all, it will be the nation that wins the New Great Game that will be the true Rome. As long as one of these leaders doesn't fashion himself a new Tamerlane and sets out as a pyramid builder, the United States will be content to help protect the oil routes and look the other way. In the modern world, oil is thicker than blood. The major problem with these Central Asian riches is getting the product to market. This accounts for the many competing pipeline plans: to gain control over the delivery chokepoints. Most pipelines currently go through Russia, but the United States has positioned itself for the future. The U.S.-supported Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will likely become the major route for the oil to get to Western markets. As currently envisaged, it comprises a 1,743-kilometer route through Armenia and Georgia to Turkey, bypassing the Bosporus. With the Taliban out of the way, the leaders of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan signed an agreement last December with the U.S. firm Unocal to lay a gas pipeline through Afghanistan to serve Turkmenistan's vast gas fields. It appears the United States is planning to be in this area of the world for the long haul. China likely will move forcefully to expand its influence using Pakistan and Iran. Russia will attempt to retain its military presence in the region to protect its own assets. The stage appears set for some kind of Russo-American agreement to share the burden of defending this vital area against takeover by the Chinese, but, as in the first Great Game, the rules can change in an instant. Whoever controls access to the Central Asian oil and gas will in effect control the resources themselves. This is the reason for the United States so forcefully injecting itself into this region of the world. September-11 presented itself as a marvelous opportunity to project U.S. military and political power. It is thus more accurate to see events in Afghanistan and Iraq as the first skirmishes of the New Great Game, which promises to the eventual victor bragging rights for the 21st century. Let the game begin. (back to top) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reading #3
RFE/RL Newsline
October 05, 2005
CENTRAL ASIA: REPLAYING THE GREAT GAME
By Igor Torbakov (back to top) There is a direct parallel between the current Russian-American rivalry in Central Asia and the military-diplomatic duel that the Russian and British empires were waging in the Eurasian heartland in the 19th century, the analysts say. Both Moscow and Washington deny they are intensely competing in the strategically important region, but the two sides' deeds are more eloquent than words. Uzbekistan, Central Asia's pivotal state, appears to be in the center of the two great powers' geopolitical tug-of-war. During U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's October 10-13 tour of Central Asia, Tashkent was demonstratively excluded from her itinerary. Symptomatically, a few days prior to Rice's visit to the region, Uzbekistan joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), thus having made another regional grouping – Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO) redundant (See EDM, October 11). Tashkent's move, the regional experts argue, has intensified Moscow-sponsored integration process in the post-Soviet lands and given Russia additional economic and political clout in what it regards as its natural zone of influence. Washington intended to punish the authoritarian Uzbek President Islam Karimov for backtracking on democratic reform, ruthless suppression of the May 14 riots in Andijan and, last but not least, eviction of American troops from the Karshi-Khanabad base. Rice, who visited Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan but bypassed Tashkent, gave Karimov, in the words of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, a "very clear message." Now, Fried added, "We have to see how he responds." In fact, the Uzbek strongman responded even before receiving the signal from Washington, as he clearly anticipated what this message might be. On September 19-24, Russia and Uzbekistan conducted joint military maneuvers in Uzbek territory. The war games, billed as "anti-terrorist exercises," appear to be a sign of growing Russian-Uzbek military ties. Their goal, according to Uzbek military sources, was to train Russian and Uzbek forces together to quickly put down an armed rebellion in Uzbekistan similar to the Andijan uprising but larger in scale. And last week, while in St. Petersburg, Karimov called Russia the "center of gravitation" for the post-Soviet states and invited his hospitable host, Russian President Vladimir Putin, to upgrade the relationship between their countries from the level of strategic partnership to that of full-blown alliance. Not surprisingly, most Russian analysts approved the Uzbek leader's "correct geopolitical move," with some commentators adding – in a seeming allusion to his previous skillful maneuvering between Moscow and Washington – that this time Karimov had made his "final strategic choice." There are several issues vital for the political elites of the Central Asian states on which Russia and the United States appear to have different perspectives. The paramount one is securing and perpetuating the rule of the local powers that be. There is a general consensus within Russia's policymaking and analytic community that it was primarily U.S. pressure and the fear of a possible "color" revolution that pushed Karimov back into Moscow's fold. The majority of Russian experts share a view that the post-Soviet leaders of Central Asian states are particularly wary of Washington's democratization drive and of what they perceive as America's plan to install pro-Western regimes in the region. Bush administration policies, one regional expert contends, scared Central Asia's autocratic rulers and forced them to "seek protection under the Russian security umbrella." Remarkably, speaking on October 12 in the Federation Council, the Russian parliament's upper chamber, at the special hearings on Russia's policies vis-à-vis the CIS countries, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov energetically advocated further strengthening Russian-Uzbek ties, adding that any economic or political sanctions against Uzbekistan are useless. The second issue is the outside powers' military bases in Central Asia. While happy to get lavish payments from the Pentagon for American use of the local military facilities, the region's rulers are uncertain about Washington's true strategic intentions. They also know the U.S. forces will be reluctant to get involved in any local political conflicts and will not support the local regimes militarily if the latter are challenged in any kind of mass uprising or "revolution." By contrast, Russia, while seeking to beef up its military presence in the region, is keen to give the Central Asian regimes the guarantees of its readiness to provide military assistance in the time of dire need. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Secretary-General Nikolai Bordyuzha announced on October 11 that a "large group of forces" would be created in Central Asia, similar to the Russia-Belarusian and Russian-Armenian integrated army groups. (The CSTO comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia.) Bordyuzha said that the Central Asian army group would be composed "not from battalions, but from regiments and divisions and, in the event of a serious military conflict, it will defend CSTO members from all sides." Most Russian experts see Secretary Rice's Central Asian tour as an attempt at countering the growing Russian influence in the strategically located and energy-rich region, although Fried and other U.S. officials specifically stressed that Washington did not view Central Asia as a battleground of the Russian-American Great Game. But the leading Moscow analysts are not convinced. For them, Russia and the United States are locked in the classic geopolitical "struggle for the leadership position in Central Asia." Local security specialists seem to agree: "Some time ago we were talking about the Cold War," commented Col. Gen. Abdygul Chotbayev, the former commander of Kyrgyzstan's National Guard. "It ended, having been transformed into a geopolitical rivalry between the two world powers – the United States and Russia -- over spheres of influence in Central Asia." (Rossiiskaya gazeta, October 13, 12; Vremya novostei, Gazeta, October 12; RIA-Novosti, Kommersant, October 11; RFE/RL, October 11, 5; Washington Times, October 9) (back to top) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reading #4
AFP Press Service
RICE CALLS FOR MORE DEMOCRACY IN CENTRAL ASIA (back to top) ASTANA Oct 13-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that Central Asia's economic development must go hand in hand with more democratisation. "Political and economical freedom must go together and complete each other," Rice said in a speech at the Eurasian University of Astana, on the second day of a visit to Kazakhstan. "Stability requires legitimacy and true legitimacy requires democracy," she said, adding, "It is urgent work that cannot be deferred." Kazakhstan was the second to last stop on Rice's tour of Central Asian countries and followed an unscheduled visit to quake-ravaged Pakistan. Her speech was seen as a response to a recent statement by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev that economic progress must take priority. She later held talks with Nazarbayev, who has been in power since before the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and is seeking another seven year term in elections on December 4. Opposition leaders, who have accused the authorities of stepping up pressure on them with the approach of the elections, criticised Rice's remarks as not going far enough. "Tolerance and freedom provides a shield against extremism," Rice said in her speech. "I do think it is critical to have free and fair elections." "It is extremely important for the opposition to have the ability to mobilize, to gather their views together ... free of intimidation of any kind," she added. She pressed the point in a press conference following her talks with Nazarbayev, saying that "Kazakhstan has an opportunity to lead this region in the democratic process." "Kazakhstan could be a pillar for tremendous progress in Central Asia," she added. Nazarbayev for his part called his talks with Rice "fruitful and interesting" and pledged that the December election would be democratic. "We appreciate the support of the United States in our economic reforms and our efforts towards democracy," he said, while adding that democratisation stemmed from "economic development and the prosperity of the people." Kazakhstan is a US ally in the region, opening its air space to coalition planes used in Afghanistan in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban regime and also sending a small contingent of some 40 soldiers to Iraq. Rice called US-Kazakh relations "excellent" in the fight against terrorism. She later flew on to Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan, for talks with President Emomali Rakhmonov, another regional leader criticised for repression of media and human rights. Last week the US embassy in Dushanbe expressed concern after the head of a leading opposition party, Makhmadruzi Iskandarov, was sentenced to 23 years in prison on terrorism and embezzlement charges in a ruling government critics said was politically motivated. On her Central Asian tour, Rice also visited Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday, where she obtained assurances that Washington can maintain its military base near Bishkek. On Wednesday in Afghanistan, she addressed issues such as the anti-drug battle. Rice was due to arrive in France late Thursday and meet President Jacques Chirac in Paris on Friday. She will go on to London late Friday for talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. (back to top) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reading #5
Christian Science Monitor
October 26, 2005
Russia, China looking to form 'NATO of the East'?
By Fred Weir (back to top) MOSCOW - Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.
The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.
One initiative that core members Russia and China agree on, experts say, is to squeeze US influence - which peaked after 9/11 - out of the SCO's neighborhood. "Four years ago, when the SCO was formed, official Washington pooh-poohed it and declared it was no cause for concern," says Ariel Cohen, senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Now they're
proven wrong."
Wednesday's meeting is expected to review security cooperation, including a spate of upcoming joint military exercises between SCO members' armed forces. It may also sign off on a new "Contact Group" for Afghanistan. That would help Russia and China - both concerned about increased opium flows and the rise of Islamism - develop direct relations between SCO and the
Afghan government. While this will be highly controversial given the presence of NATO troops and Afghans' bitter memories of fighting Russian occupation throughout the 1980s, the Russians have an "in" because they still have longstanding allies in the country.
In attendance Wednesday will be prime ministers of member states Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as top officials from several recently added "observer" states, including Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi.
The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US influence in the region.
"Moscow is seeking options to demonstrate - to Washington in the first place - that Russia is still an important player in this area," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a partner of the US bimonthly journal Foreign Affairs. "China's ambitions are growing fast, and it also wants to turn the SCO into something bigger and more effective."
Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense
Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."
An SCO summit last June demanded that the US set a timetable to remove the bases it put in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with Moscow's acquiescence in the wake of 9/11. In July, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov ordered the US base at Karshi-Khanabad to evacuate by year's end.
But two recent visits to Kyrgyzstan by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to have secured the US lease on that country's Manas airbase indefinitely - albeit with a sharp rent increase. "There is nothing to cheer about," says Mr. Cohen. "Washington has signaled to the Russians that we won't be seeking any new bases in Central Asia. Basically, we are doing nothing to counter the moves against us."
In joint maneuvers last August, Russian strategic bombers, submarines, and paratroopers staged a mock invasion of a "destabilized" far eastern region with Chinese troops. This month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov proposed holding the first Indian-Chinese-Russian war games under SCO sponsorship. "In principle, this is possible," he said. "The SCO was formed as an organization to deal with security issues."
Should states like India and Iran join, the SCO's sway could spread into South Asia and the Middle East. "India sees observer status [in the SCO] as a steppingstone to full membership," says a Moscow-based Indian diplomat who asked not to be named. But he added that India, which has recently improved its relations with the US, does not want to send an anti-US
message. "We would hope the Americans would understand our desire to be inside the SCO, rather than outside," he says.
While the SCO's potential looks vast on paper, experts say internal rivalries would preclude it from evolving into a NATO-like security bloc. "What kind of allies could Russia and China be?" says Akady Dubnov, an expert with the Vremya Novostei newspaper. "The main question for them in Central Asia is who will gain the upper hand."
Still, the idea of a unified eastern bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US," says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. "Step by step we're building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US."
Says Cohen: "Eventually they'll wake up to this challenge in Washington. But will it be too late?" (back to top) Questions or comments about this article? Contact the editor.
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