31.01.2008
Foreign Policy in Review December, 2007 / January, 2008 The following resource is meant to quickly introduce the reader to international political issues involving Russia - ranging from the middle east to arms control to Russia's new claims on the Arctic Ocean. This news review is part of SRAS's monthly "obzor" publications. For more reviews, see the newsletter for this corresponding month. To receive the free monthly newsletter and obzori by email, simply sign up. Letter from Russia Our meeting, which took place Sept. 10-14, 2007, was sponsored by the Valdai International Discussion Club, an annual gathering of 40-45 experts from the West who meet informally with their Russian counterparts to discuss where Russia is heading. Optimism vs. Pessimism: JRL Recipients Respond "Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Russia in 2008?" Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy Despite its projected might, the Kremlin is not capable of dealing with some of Russia's critical demographic, social, economic, and political vulnerabilities. Lavrov Optimistic about CIS "Russia has understandable, legal interests in the post-Soviet space and we intend to realize them." News From the US - Elections - McCain Least Welcome The least welcome candidate, from Moscow’s standpoint, is apparently Senator John McCain (R-AZ), who won the important New Hampshire primary. He is the fiercest critic of Russia and its President. Peering into Putin’s Soul Does Vladimir Putin have a soul? He doesn't if you ask Hillary Clinton. Edwards faces rare Russia question America needs to take careful measures to ensure that Russia does not wind up joining China to form a powerful partnership that could threaten the west, presidential candidate John Edwards said today. - Other Diplomatic Spending, Structures, Events - U.S. and Russia: 200 years of diplomatic relations Although Russia and the United States have different histories, cultures and traditions, they also have much in common: vast territories and natural resources, human and scientific-technical potential. Ambassador to Moscow Up for State Post President Bush on Friday nominated the U.S. ambassador to Russia, William Burns, for the State Department's third-highest job and plans to put him in charge of the administration's efforts to contain Iran. New Russian think tank to question West ways The Kremlin is tired of Western criticisms — that Russia is becoming more authoritarian, human rights are violated, journalists are at risk and elections are rigged. Now the Kremlin is trying to turn the tables on the West... GAO Questions Program Helping Russians A U.S. economic aid program to keep Russian scientists from selling weapons information to terrorists apparently funneled much of the money to scientists who never claimed to have a background in nuclear, chemical or biological programs.
- US-Russia Perceptions, Relations - U.S. popularity in Russia at low ebb, expert says Jack Matlock, who served as ambassador from 1987 to 1991, said Russians chafe at what they consider to be American gloating over “winning” the Cold War. The Magic Numbers (Is Anti-Americanism Rising In Russia?) There are lies, outrageous lies, and then there are interpretations of opinion polls... Why Russia Matters Less Than We Think Yet for some reason, Washington has worked itself into a lather worrying about Russia. It shouldn't. The Three Rs: Rivalry, Russia, ’Ran Before we can assess Russia's relationship with the West, including on the question of Iran, we should first examine the international context in which those relations will occur. Russia enters 2008 at geopolitical highpoint - U.S. report A private U.S. intelligence agency, Stratfor, said Russia is now more powerful than it has been since the fall of Communism. Cold War Lite Cold War or not, Russia has certainly been attempting to lay the foundations for an alternative security architecture to compete with the West. US, Russia Agree on Plutonium Disposal U.S. and Russian officials announced agreement Monday on how to safely dispose of 34 metric tons of Russian weapons-grade plutonium, overcoming a major hurdle in a joint nuclear nonproliferation effort that at times has been close to falling apart. Diplomacy, NATO, Arms Control Generation Putin Rare survey data from the four main universities that feed Russia's Foreign Ministry reveals that the next generation of Russian diplomats may not turn out to be as "post-Soviet" as you think. Russia Honors Cold War Spies for Soviets The accolade for British double agent George Blake, and the award of the nation's highest medal to another prominent Soviet spy, came five months after Queen Elizabeth II honored Oleg Gordievsky, a high-level KGB man who defected to Britain in 1985. Putin Names Nationalist to NATO Post Dmitry Rogozin, a former lawmaker who has been in and out of favor with the Kremlin, has harshly criticized NATO and U.S. policies. Russia to respond 'appropriately' to Ukrainian NATO membership "Ukraine's possible integration into NATO will exacerbate Russian-Ukrainian relations in many areas. We will have to take appropriate measures in response," the ministry said. Russia hopes CFE moratorium will improve arms control regime Russia expects that its moratorium on the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty will help streamline the arms control regime in the region, the foreign minister said on Friday. Moscow’s moratorium on CFE Treaty It seems the hope in Moscow is that by taking such drastic measures to address its own security concerns, it will prompt the other participants in the European process to continue to promote military security in Europe. Troops Demography May Force Moscow to Reduce Size of Russian Military Changes in the number of 18-year-olds over the next few years will impose severe constraints. Putin's Military Might Fails to Keep Pace With His Ambitions "Things have started to change, but there's a long way to go before they're back, and I don't think they will ever be back like they were." Russia's Dark Military Problem: Hazing The military draft in Russia is semi-annual process. Each spring and fall, young men of draft age are obligated to register and undergo a physical examination for service in the armed forces. Russia Halves Conscription Period, Doubles Conscription "We will not have a full-scale call up of 250,000 in spring yet, but in autumn call-up will reach full scale." Military Strategy, Shows Moscow Resume May Parades to Demonstrate Military Strength Full-scale, Soviet-style military parades – with displays of tanks and other military hardware – will return to Red Square beginning May 9. Russian Navy to conduct exercises in the Atlantic next week He said the current expedition to the Mediterranean, which started on December 5, is aimed at ensuring Russia's naval presence "in the key operational areas of the world oceans." Russian 'Bears' Return To Air Patrolling In Distant Areas "Air patrol areas will include zones of commercial shipping and economic activity. As of today, combat patrolling will be on a permanent basis. It has a strategic character," Putin said. Medvedev, Military Promote Different Outlooks for Russia "We do not plan to attack anybody, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military force will be used, including preventively, [and] including the use of nuclear weapons." Likely Putin successor urges revival of Russian naval might" This work is taking place, maybe more slowly than we'd like, but we have taken this on for the first time in 20 years." Russian fleet will sail in Pacific war games For the first time, Russia will join the armada of foreign and U.S. warships participating this summer in the largest naval war games in the world. Missiles, Nuclear Weapons The Poles Get Cold Feet The Poles are not the only ones with doubts. Last month, a thousand Czechs marched through Prague demanding a referendum on whether the system’s radar should be built in the Czech Republic. Americans and Russians Strongly Support Steps to Eliminate Nuclear Weapons This is the final release of a larger public opinion study of Americans and Russians’ attitudes toward nuclear weapons and recent cooperative nuclear risk reduction proposals. Russia Global Weapons Export Leader In 2001-2005 SIPRI experts explained Russia's leadership in this sector by the fact that Russia sells a lot of weapons cheaper than other suppliers. Russia Successfully Tests New ICBM The RS-24 missile was launched from the Plesetsk launch facility in northern Russia and its test warheads successfully hit designated targets on the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula some 4,340 miles east. Russia Ships First Lot of Nuclear Fuel to Iran The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it had received written assurances from the government in Tehran that the 82 tons of fuel would be used only at the Bushehr plant. A Brave New World President Mikhail Gorbachev on the nuclear age and Russia’s future. Working Together to Defuse Russia's Nuclear Timebomb Ex-Soviet nuclear submarines lie rotting, like ticking ecological time bombs. Russia to have 50 silo-based Topol-M ICBM systems by end of 2008 At present, Russia operates 48 Topol-M systems (NATO reporting name SS-27) and will deploy another two with a missile regiment in the Saratov Region in southern Russia this year, bringing the total number to 50. British Council U.K. Condemns Russian Intimidation of Cultural Staff Russian police last night also briefly detained the British cultural body's head in St. Petersburg, Stephen Kinnock, the British Council said in an e-mailed statement today. UK and Russia trade threats in diplomatic row "So far ... the British Council office in Moscow was spared as an act of goodwill" In praise of cultural diplomacy As ties between London and Moscow grow increasingly frosty over the role a cultural organisation, BBC diplomatic correspondent Bridget Kendall looks back at the history of the British Council in Russia. Russia offers way out of culture row A Russian foreign ministry official on Monday linked talks on the status of the British Council's regional offices to resuming counter-terrorism cooperation with Russia's Federal Security and talks on relaxing visa rules. British Council Closes in St. Pete The St. Petersburg office suspended its work after its British director was briefly detained by traffic police and its Russian staff as well as staff in Yekaterinburg were summoned by the Federal Security Service. Relations with Japan Japanese Spy Charges Downgraded to Financial Malfeasance Japanese officials have practically admitted that there was no espionage: the official gave Russian diplomats translations from the foreign press and summaries of presentations at conferences. Anti-Russian Demonstrations in Tokyo Japanese ultra-rightist organizations have reacted sharply to the recent spy scandal between Russia and Japan. Russia tightens grip on disputed islands The Russian and Japanese coastguard cutters shadowed each other through the steely waters of the north Pacific in a carefully choreographed routine played out along the last active fault-line of the the Second World War. Relations with Other Countries Pushback to Unilateralism: the China-India-Russia Alliance One of the most important is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security alliance led by Russia and China, with several non-voting members including India. Russians aren't the only migrants to find a welcome in Arctic Norway The local ship maintenance business - the town's biggest employer - has managed to remain solvent thanks to the Russian barges and cargo ships that come to Norway for repairs because in Russia it would be even more expensive. The perils of disparate interests Perhaps in the parallel universe things are different: European countries could react to the South Stream deal... Putin's Bulgarian Visit To Test EU Energy Resolve Putin's visit to the EU's newest member state is all about energy, which can't help but worry other members of the European bloc. Russia, Israel Ready for Visa-Free The visa-free agreement of Russia and Israel has been elaborated and will be inked once the governments of both countries carry out respective internal procedures, Interfax reported. Globe-Trotting Putin Landed in 64 Countries The globe-trotting president has visited 64 countries and territories on five continents over some 190 foreign trips.
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